New fashions, avatars, structures, and other builds. And the work behind them.
Monday, October 12, 2020
The 2020 Election Simulator
By Bixyl Shuftan
Last week in the official blog, Linden Lab encouraged its US residents to register to vote. " Just as we are free to create and shape the virtual world of Second Life, we can’t forget the power that we also have to shape the physical world. We are all a part of something, and your voice matters. Register to vote today!" Near the end of their reminder, they mentioned something election-related inworld, the "2020 Election Simulator."
Do you need to prepare yourself - mentally, spiritually, physically - for the tension of Election Night 2020? These randomized election simulations between Trump and Biden are based on the best available forecasts and set in a mock TV news studio.
Dropping in on the coastal mainland sim of Eyeharts, I walked into the nearest large building and was greeted by an animesh receptionist.
3NN News HQ Receptionist: Welcome to the 3NN television studio, ... We are currently shooting The Simulation Room with Guy Simpleton. Please feel welcome to enter the studio. This simulation is free for the public, but if you're concerned that its creator is crazy, please feel free to donate to his psychiatric care fund. If this election makes you sick of mankind, feel welcome to donate to the Squid Overlord's Invasion Fund. But most of all, please enjoy your experience here.
Walking in, there was a huge map of the fifty states and DC. in front of me was a table with several animesh figures sitting. Between the table and the map were a few cameras, and an animesh figure that was probably the reporter. To the side was two boards with the fifty states in two groups, red states and blue states, with most a deep color, but some were a shade of purple.
Guy Simpleton: The time is 8:00pm on the East Coast. Polls have now closed in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington D.C. and in parts of Florida, Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota and Texas.
Time would quickly pass on the board, "Virginia on the Big Board for Biden. 13 electoral votes there. ... The time is 8:30pm on the East Coast. Polls are now closed in Arkansas. In the state of Arkansas, 3NN is calling a win for Trump. That is 6 electoral votes for Trump. ... We can now put the Hoosier State up on the Big Board. Trump has won Indiana's 11 electoral votes. ... We have a projection. Maine - First District on the Big Board for Biden. 1 electoral votes there." The states didn't fill up completely, but red or blue squares appeared, about one per electoral vote. After about ten minutes, and a bit after midnight into the simulator, the announcer called out, "We have a winner! Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes has put Biden over the top. Biden wins the 2020 election!"
I was greeted by two residents in the building. One was Duncan (ABoysPlaceMall Resident), "Hello and welcome, Bixyl!" He was the one whom had build the place, "I built this for myself mostly. All that talk about trying to run up a lead on Election Night. And you can get all the forecasts and stuff but like... what's the experience going to be like? So I cross-referenced poll closing times with forecast data. And even rewatched the 2016 news coverage. I made a few gentle tweaks to put the swing states out a bit later into the night and add some drama." He did say he was thinking of adding on more information, "I'm wondering if I should try to incorporate this data on returns somehow," mentioning "2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics" of the US Elections Project.
There were a few tip jars around. Duncan explained, "I just put out tip jars but I don't need tips. So many people were asking about them that I put them in." When I asked him about my assumption about the blocks over the states being electoral votes, "That is correct. There's one block for each electoral vote to give a quick idea of the relative scale. My idea was to help with the visualization of what all the numbers people are swimming in mean." Because of this Nebraska and Maine can easily show both red and blue.
I noticed a globe in the front office in which of 1185 simulations done, most had come out in support of Biden. Duncan would say, "One thing I should say is that my simulator runs hot for Biden, not because it's biased to the left, but because it's biased towards the favorite. I use the 538 projection data for each state, but their model treats states as dependent events. So like, if it projects high turnout among Black voters, then states like Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi tip together. I treat each state as a mutually independent event. ... Out in the lobby there's a running tally of all the simulations so far. Trump started out winning about 1 in 40 but now it's like, one every day or two." Duncan then brought my attention to the two boards with red and blue states, "This wall here has them lined up left to right based on how far they lean." He then brought up a website, https://www.270towin.com , "You can draw your own maps there if you want to. And if you click these states."
New Mexico: New Mexico is worth 5 electoral votes. The latest projection gives Trump a 4% chance of winning New Mexico in the 2020 election.
New Mexico: If you live in New Mexico, you can verify your current voter vegistration status on the New Mexico Secretary of State website: https://voterportal.servis.sos.state.nm.us/WhereToVote.aspx
New Mexico: Information on voter registration information has been obtained from Vote.org: https://www.vote.org/am-i-registered-to-vote/
"It tells you the latest forecast chance for the state and how to check your voter registration," Duncan informed, then drew my attention to the nearby smaller buildings to the east, "Also, the voting booth in front of the post office - when it's not broken (I'm not sure what breaks it yet). It will ask you how you want to vote and then give you information about the rules for your state."
The simulator rebooted to run again, and while doing so, we heard the reporter go, "We have received reports of election administration problems in North Carolina. The state's 15 electoral votes will have to be resolved by legislative or judicial processes. Will this prevent the determination of a final winner in the national election?" I asked about it, and Duncan answered, "I threw in a 'cannot resolve' chance, like in this simulation, North Carolina could not resolve. There is a 1% chance per state. So like, let's say Trump wins Texas 64% of the time. If it rolls 64 exactly, the state goes into 'cannot resolve' purple. I don't specifically track hung elections, but if you take the total simulations, subtract the Biden wins and the Trump wins from it, the difference is approximately the number of times the elections have ended without a clear winner. I make no attempt to forecast how those conflicts might play out. Nor do I try to price in the possibility of legislatures actually overturning elections. I mean if Biden wins Pennsylvania and they just decide to nullify the vote... that's too unprecedented to reliably forecast." When I checked, there had been twelve ties, about half the number of Trump wins.
Duncan went on, "There's a great metaphor about forecasting - the turkey and the farmer. Every day, the farmer comes to the turkey with a bucket of grain. And so the turkey, based on past precedent, has reason every day to expect a bucket of grain. But one day, the farmer comes with a hatchet, 'cuz it's Thanksgiving. And while that day is inevitable, nothing in the turkey's experience prepares him for it. It's beyond the realm of causal inference. ... It's told well in a book called Black Swan by, uh, Nassim Taleb. Anyways, yes something like it happened in 2000. You can debate to the end of the day what really happened in Florida that year, but the fact is courts stepped in and terminated the count of the vote according to procedures that had been previously established by law. 1968 has always been dogged by allegations that Illinois and Texas were taken by cheating. ... 2000 was not pretty, but we've never had state legislatures try to overturn election results they didn't like."
"y'know, elections bring down dictators. There are losses that are too crushing to steal. Last poll I saw, Biden was up at 57% territory. If he can convert that to votes..." He then directed my attention to a board near the table, "The white board next to the cable pundits has a democracy pledge." Looking over, it had the following:
We pledge for Democracy:
1) We will vote.
2) We will refuse to accept results until all the votes are counted.
3) We will nonviolently take to the streets if a coup is attempted.
4) If we must, we will shut down this country to protect integrity of the democratic process.
"You can hop on the white board and take your own picture of yourself with the pledge if you want to," he told me as he gave me a picture.
Of the last Presidential election in 2016, Duncan commented, "Talk about the flukiest of flukes. It was decided by less than 1/10 of 1% of the vote in three democratic-leaning states with Republican governments. ... 2016 was so close that it's impossible to be sure it was free and fair. It's impossible to be sure it wasn't. ... We never conducted an audit of the election. So where you come down on it really is more about where you set the needle of your preconceptions."
"We have a long hard road ahead of us as a country," Duncan went on, "no matter how this election turns out. In many ways this whole project here was cathartic for me." He directed my attention to the nearby buildings, "I went to the protests, so I put a protest in front of the courthouse. I've got an urgent care (center) for covid ... all the way down at the other end of the parcel. ... There are anti-maskers yelling at the immigrant running the donut shop."
There was some conversation between Duncan and I with a resident whom had just returned after a seven year absence, whom had some questions for the both of us. Eventually, I told them both farewell, checked out the other buildings some, then went on my way.
The Newser has no plans to endorse a candidate, but does ask that all US citizens who can vote, even if it's for a third party or write-in candidate, and of course for local races and propositions. Due to the tense political climate, discretion is advised when discussing political matters to others.
Although rumors persist about some close elections such as 1960, the only US Presidential election most historians can agree had it's outcome altered by fraud was in 1876, during the Gilded Age, in which the electoral votes of three states were disputed. The losing side only accepted the results after a behind the scenes deal of which the consequences lasted for many decades.
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